The political turmoil that began in 2022 with the split in Shiv Sena and the collapse of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government took up most of 2023 — with one important addition. The MVA was the first post-2014 experiment in the country where we saw opposition parties unite to prevent the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from forming a government. After the Shiv Sena split, the second constituent member, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) suffered a similar split with Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit walking away with the majority of party MLAs. Needless to say, this was a massive blow to 83-year-old Pawar, who is the most prominent Maharashtra politician. But, it ended up giving the Shiv Sena (under Eknath Shinde’s leadership)-BJP government the stability it needed. It also put an end to the BJP’s reliance on Shinde. The ruling alliance now has over 200 MLAs, after Ajit joined with 40 NCP MLAs.
Legal battles for party symbol and name
2023 also saw legal battles between rival Shiv Sena and NCP factions in courts, before the Election Commission of India (ECI) and before the Maharashtra assembly speaker, to stake a claim on the party. The outcome of these battles is expected in 2024 and this will have a long-term impact on state politics.
To begin with, Speaker Rahul Narwekar will have to give his verdict on the Sena vs Sena battle by January 10. If it goes in favour of chief minister Eknath Shinde, it will immediately be challenged by the Thackeray faction in the Supreme Court. In that scenario, the apex court’s verdict will decide the fate of the Shinde-led three-party government. Thackeray faction leaders said that the court might not take more than a few months to decide on the issue, as it has already heard the entire case in detail.
On the other hand, Narwekar will have to decide on the disqualification of deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and his MLAs by January 31, as mandated by the Supreme Court. The Sharad Pawar-led NCP is also prepared to take the matter all the way up to the Supreme Court if Narwekar rules in favour of Ajit Pawar. Around the same time, the ECI is expected to give its verdict on the Pawar vs Pawar battle for the party name and symbol.
The Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) is also expecting the apex court’s verdict on its petition challenging the ECI decision to hand over the original Shiv Sena party to Eknath Shinde.
Maratha reservation row
As if a split in two heavyweight regional parties was not enough, the fight for Maratha reservation in government jobs and education will also heat up this year.
Activist Manoj Jarange-Patil will march to Mumbai from Antarwali Sarati village in Jalna on January 20. Tens of thousands of Maratha community members are expected to join him. He is expected to stage his hunger strike in the state capital to demand benefits for Marathas by seeking Kunbi sub-caste certificates under the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category.
Jarange-Patil has vowed to bring Mumbai to a halt. At the same time, OBC outfits have announced a parallel agitation to prevent the government from accepting Jarange-Patil’s demand since it could affect opportunities available for existing castes in the category. The government will have to handle a tricky situation. It is hoping that the Supreme Court accepts its curative petition to reconsider the earlier order to quash the Maratha quota provided by the Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP government. The Supreme Court is expected to take a decision on the curative petition on January 24. The government is also preparing for another shot at reservation by enacting a new legislation for the Maratha quota.
The election year and its outcome for bigwigs
The year will see two elections in Maharashtra. In the battle between the ruling BJP and the Opposition’s INDIA bloc (of which Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar are part), the 48 Lok Sabha seats of the state will play a significant role. Both sides will be hoping to win a majority in what will only be a high-pitched battle in the summer.
The tenure of the current assembly comes to an end in November — the assembly polls will likely be held in September-October, or even earlier if the assembly is dissolved before that. The election will be a battle for Pawar and Thackeray to reclaim what they have lost. On the other hand, Ajit and Eknath Shinde will seek the approval of the people for their rebellion.
The outcome of the assembly election will also decide whether the regional parties remain relevant in Maharashtra politics or whether only two national parties — the BJP and the Congress — will be the major players in the state.
The state’s politics has been revolving around Sharad Pawar, the Maratha strongman, for over three decades now. The split, however, saw several NCP MLAs siding with his nephew. Ajit also staked a claim on the name and symbol of the party formed by the veteran politician. The new year will be crucial for the veteran politician: Whether the party remains with him and moreover, whether he remains relevant to Maharashtra politics. The fate of the coalition that he helped stitch together in Maharashtra, the MVA, will also be decided in the two upcoming polls.
Eknath Shinde began his political journey as a party worker and rose to become one of the top leaders of Shiv Sena before he snatched the party from right under Uddhav Thackeray’s nose, that too when the latter was chief minister of the state. He managed to survive one year in office though the sword of disqualification hangs over his head. 2024 will see if his gamble succeeds or fails. He will have to lead the ruling alliance to win most of the 48 seats, and then return to power as chief minister.
In 2022, Devendra Fadnavis helped Shinde split the Shiv Sena. In 2023, he supported Ajit in his bid to take over the NCP. With these two splits, the deputy CM has ensured that the BJP-led alliance’s position remains strong in Maharashtra. This will no doubt be important in the Lok Sabha elections, as the BJP aims to win most of the 48 parliamentary seats in the state. In 2024, the question to be answered is whether Fadnavis will make a bid for the CM’s post, returning to the sixth floor of the Mantralaya, or will he shift to national politics?
Finally, Uddhav Thackeray veered away from his father and Sena founder Bal Thackeray’s stand by taking up a position of power. However, had to resign midway following the split in his party engineered by Shinde, once a trusted lieutenant. He spent the year fighting a legal battle with Shinde, rebuilding the party and stitching alliances to widen his support base. In 2024, he will try to take back his party and notch up some electoral wins against Shinde and the BJP. He has also remained true to his MVA allies — Sharad Pawar-led NCP and the Congress — despite facing criticism of deviating from Bal Thackeray’s Hindutva ideology. 2024 will make his role in the INDIA bloc also clear.
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