Friday’s daily report on Covid-19 showed 19 new cases were recorded in Maharashtra in the last 24 hours, bringing the total active cases to 68 as of Friday.
With Christmas round the corner, there is growing apprehension among doctors that the number of cases may escalate even further.
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According to data provided by the state health department, a day after reporting a 1.6 per cent test positivity rate — representing the percentage of conducted tests that yield positive results for the infection — on Thursday, it surged to 2.8 per cent on Friday.
Out of 676 tests conducted, 19 of them turned out positive. Of this, 242 tests were done through RT-PCR and 434 by rapid antigen testing. On Wednesday, the test positivity rate was 2.6 percent, with 14 individuals testing positive out of 530 tests.
The weekly positive cases have also surged from 12 between November 25 and December 1 to 68 recorded between December 16 and December 22.
The JN.1 Covid variant is more infectious, and may surpass other variants with its strong immune escape, prompting WHO to label it a “variant of interest” (VOI). Dr Rajesh Karyakarte, Maharashtra’s genome sequencing coordinator, earlier informed The Indian Express about JN.1’s exponential growth. WHO data reveals a surge from 3.3 per cent to 27 per cent within a month—an 86 per cent growth advantage.
With this in mind, doctors raised the need for robust testing as per the Union health ministry’s instructions. States are specifically instructed to maintain vigilant surveillance, promptly report cases of influenza-like and severe acute respiratory illnesses, increase the utilisation of RT-PCR tests, and submit positive samples for genome sequencing. However, the total testing in Maharashtra hovered around an average of around 650 per day for an estimated population of 12 crore. The total testing done in Mumbai was far less – a matter of concern given that the state was dealing with prolonged seasonal flu with persistent cough and fever extending over two weeks.
Doctors warn that due to the lack of testing, patients with the JN.1 variant might slip through the cracks. Dr Sanjith Saseedharan, consultant and head, critical care, SL Raheja Hospital, outlined that despite the relatively low numbers, it was crucial to closely monitor cases, understand symptoms, and assess the severity to effectively address a potential significant surge.
“Implementing targeted testing and isolation strategies will facilitate rapid diagnosis and isolation of cases. The use of RT-PCR testing is vital for tracing infected individuals, enabling timely isolation, and initiating early treatment, known to be more effective when administered promptly,” said Dr Saseedharan.
Dr Lancelot Pinto, pulmonologist and epidemiologist at Hinduja Hospital, said, “I think RT-PCR testing can be limited to high-risk groups who may benefit with the early use of antivirals and close monitoring. A low-risk individual with respiratory symptoms should be isolated irrespective of what the virus is, and we need to encourage people to stay at home if they are ill.”
Despite people’s hesitancy towards RT-PCR testing, it’s crucial to explore alternatives like antigen testing, ensuring timely reporting to authorities. However, concerns emerge with home self-testing kits, potentially leading to under-reported infections and masking the actual situation.
“Assigning value to RT-PCR positivity becomes irrelevant when a significant portion of tests conducted are home-based and go unreported. If robust surveillance measures are implemented, mandating RT-PCR testing may provide minimal additional benefits,” said Dr Pinto.
There’s anticipation of a potential surge in infections in the next few weeks if the public neglects Covid-19-appropriate behaviour, particularly mask-wearing. Dr Samir Garde, director of the department of pulmonology and lung transplant at Global Hospitals, highlighted how the public has become lax, resorting to self-medication for flu-like symptoms, which can also be indicative of COVID-19.
“With a decrease in public vigilance, there’s a risk that individuals might resort to self-medication instead of seeking professional medical advice. This could lead to delayed or inappropriate treatment, potentially exacerbating health issues and complicating the overall management of the pandemic,” warned Dr Garde.
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