Wetin Putin really want? – BBC News Pidgin

For months now, Russia Vladimir Putin bin dey deny plan to attack Ukraine, but on Thursday e announce a “special military operation” for di kontri Donbas region. Di announcement on live television biun dey followed by reports of explosions for Ukraine capital Kyiv as well as oda parts of di kontri.

Mr Putin latest actions dey come days afta e bone peace deal and order troops inside two eastern regions wey rebels dey hold, for im own words to “maintain peace”.

Russia don deploy at least 200,000 troops near Ukraine borders in recent months, and fears dey say di latest move mark di first step of a new invasion. Wetin happun next fit jeopardise Europe entire security structure.

But wetin really be di palava and why Putin dey para?

Where dem send Russian troops go and why?

Wen Russia invade Ukraine for 2014, rebels wey get President Putin support seize big areas of di east and dme don dey dig am out wit Ukraine army ever since. One international Minsk peace accord happun but di gbege still continue and so Russia leader say e dey send in troops to di two areas wey di rebels dey hold. UN Secretary-General don reject Russia use of di word peacekeepers.

Di West believe say Moscow dey plan new invasion of Ukraine, a kontri of 44 million pipo wit border wit both Russia and di European Union. For a start, reports say tanks dey land di separatist-controlled Donetsk and the latest satellite photos show Russian troops deployed within a short distance of Ukraine’s borders.

President Putin don warn say Ukraine go dey responsible for further bloodshed if dem no stop di attack on di east.

Wetin be Putin problem with Ukraine?

Russia for a long time don stand against Ukraine move towards European institutions, both Nato and di EU. Now, Mr Putin dey claim say Ukraine na toy of di West and no ever be proper state anyway.

E dey demand guarantees from di West and Ukraine say dem no go join Nato, one defensive alliance of 30 konties, and say Ukraine go demilitarise and become a neutral state.

As a former Soviet republic Ukraine get deep social and cultural ties with Russia, and dem dey speak well-well dia, but ever since Russia invade for 2014 those relations don get K-Leg.

Russia attacke Ukraine wen dem comot di pro-Russian president for early 2014. Di war for di east don claim more dan 14,000 lives since den.

Why di recognition of di rebel areas dey dangerous?

Until now these so-called pipo’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk don dey run by Russian proxies.

Under Mr Putin decree wey recognise dem as independent, Russian troops dey for di first time recognised say dem station dia and dem fit build military bases too.

If dem pour Russian troops into day area to witness hundreds of ceasefire violations every day, di risk of open war go become far higher. Di two rebel areas for get special status inside Ukraine under di Minsk peace accords, but Mr Putin move don block dat one from happening.

President Putin fit no go as far as to tear di peace accords for di east. E don tok for past of only “military-technical” measures if e no get wetin e want and Moscow bin don insist say “no Russian invasion”.

But di chance of diplomatic solution no look good and di West dey fear say e go go further. US President Joe Biden don warn say: “We believe say dem go target Ukraine capital Kyiv, city of 2.8 million innocent pipo.”

In theory, Russian forces fit aim to sweep across Ukraine from di east, north and south and try to remove di democratically elected goment.

Dem fit mobilise troops for Crimea, Belarus and around Ukraine eastern borders.

But Ukraine too don build up im armed forces in recent years and Russia no go get am easy. Di military don call up all reservists between di age of 18-60.

Russia leader get oda options too: maybe a no-fly zone or blockade of Ukrainian ports, or to move nuclear weapons to neighbouring Belarus.

E fit also launch cyber-attacks. Ukrainian goment websites go down in January and two of Ukraine biggest banks dey hit for mid-February.

Di West say Russia move dey illegal and UN Secretary-General António Guterres don condemn am as violation of Ukraine territorial integrity and sovereignty.

But Nato allies don make am clear say no plans dey to send combat troops to Ukraine. Instead dem don offer Ukraine advisers, weapons and field hospitals.

Meanwhile, 5,000 Nato troops don dey deployed go di Baltic states and Poland. Dem fit send anoda 4,000 go Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.

Russia don speak of a “moment of truth” to re-work im relationship with Nato and don highlight three demands.

First, e want a legally binding pledge say Nato no go expand further. “For us e dey absolutely mandatory to ensure say Ukraine never, ever become a member of Nato,” na so Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov tok.

Mr Putin don complain say Russia get “nowhere further to retreat to – shey dem tink say we go just fold our hand and sit by?”

For 1994, Russia sign agreement to respect independent Ukraine independence and sovereignty.

But last year, President Putin write one long piece wey describe Russians and Ukrainians as “one nation”, and now e don claim say modern Ukraine dey entirely created by communist Russia. E see di collapse of di Soviet Union for December 1991 as di “disintegration of historical Russia”.

President Putin don also argue say if Ukraine join Nato, di alliance go fit try to recapture Crimea.

Im oda ogbonge demands na say make Nato no deploy “strike weapons near Russia borders”, and say make dem remove forces and military infrastructure from member states wey join di alliance from 1997.

Nato na defensive alliance with open-door policy to new members, and im 30 member states dey stand ground say dat one no go change.

Ukraine president don call for, “timeframes wey dey workable” to join Nato, but prospect say e go happun no dey for a long time, as Germany chancellor don make am clear.

Di idea say any current Nato go give up im membership na sometin wey no too make sense.

For President Putin eyes, di West promise back for 1990 say Nato no go expand “an inch to di east” but dem do am anyway.

Dat na before di collapse of di Soviet Union, however, so di promise wey dem make to di den Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev only refer to East Germany foi di context of a reunified Germany.

Mr Gorbachev later tok say “di topic of Nato expansion no ever dey discussed” at di time.